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Weekly Market Comment


Feature Article:
When Market Trends Break, Even Borderline Data is Recessionary
When stock market action deteriorates and broad economic data is weakening even moderately, the risks of a recession actually jump considerably. The conditional probability of a recession prior to the market falling below its 12-month moving average was just 5-10 percent. It has now jumped to between 60 and 75 percent. This is roughly 6 or 7 times the odds that economists are allowing for a recession.
By William Hester, CFA

Reprint Policy

When Market Trends Break, Even Borderline Data is Recessionary
Is the Rush into European Stock Markets Warranted?
Does the CAPE Still Work?
The Policy Portfolio and the Next Equity Bear Market
Fed Leaves Punchbowl, Takes Away Free Lunch (of International Diversification)
Five Global Risks to Monitor in 2012
Rising Global Interest Rates Create Headwinds
Three Profit Metrics to Avoid Earnings Season Myopia
Changes in the Inflation Rate Matter as Much
to Investors as the Level

An Uneven Global Recovery - Lingering Effects of the Credit Crisis
Perspectives on "Non-Traditional" Monetary Policy
Do Past 10-Year Returns Forecast Future 10-Year Returns?
The Paradox of the Zero Bound
Subpar Economic Recovery Gets Premium Market Valuation
Wall Street Earnings Expectations Ignore Economic Divergences
The Great Divergence
An Update on International Market Valuations
Business Cycles, Election Cycles, and Potential Risks
An Update on Valuations and Forward Earnings Assumptions
Bond Yields, Earnings Yields, and Inflation
A View from the NBER Recession Indicators
Three Observations on Third Quarter Earnings
Forward Looking Measures Still Don't Provide Evidence for a V-Shaped Recovery
This Earnings Season, Watch Sales
Forward Earnings Imply a Return to Near-Record Profit Margins
Without Phoenix Stocks, Volume Continues to Contract
Is the Job Market Ready for a Recovery?
Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery
Secular Bear Markets and the Volatility of Inflation
Trading Volume Separates Bull Markets from Bear Rallies
A Stock Market Rebound Closely Linked with Economic Data Surprises
Market Valuations During U.S. Recessions
Stock Market Valuations Following the Great Moderation
Will Global Markets Take Their Lead from the U.S.?
Low Quality's Round Trip
Bad News Bulls
Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession
The Beginning of the Middle
Experimenting with the Market's Median Valuation
Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Expected Misery Index
Consumer Spending Break-Down
Recessions and the Duration of Bad News
Price-to-Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable
International Markets Show Important Divergences
Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally
Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns
Recessions and Stock Prices
Adjusting P/E Ratios for the Market Cycle
Private Equity and Market Valuation
Must Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?
Profit Margins, Earnings Growth, and Stock Returns
Record Profits Don't Excite Corporate Executives
Relative Value and Relative Returns
Inflation Data May Continue to Surprise
Average Gain in Year Two of Presidential Cycle Hides Important Declines
Rally Boosters
Large Value Index Bets Big on Economic Growth and Financials
Earnings Growth and the Yield Curve
Misfit Stocks
Investors Opt for Safety Within Risky Investments
"Taylor" your Fed Expectations
The Anxious Index
New Issues Ride Google's Coattails
The Declining Quality of Earnings
The Weighting Game
Demographics and Financial Markets
A Stock Market Without A View
Parting Ways: Leading Indicators and the Fed Funds Target
Valuing the Fed's Inflation Fighting Credibility
Retirement Savings and Efficient Markets
Long-Term Stock Returns: How Low Will They Go?
Those Bargain Days - Valuation, Anchoring, and Availability
The Future of Investment Management
The Battle Between Speed and Stability
Stocks for the (Really, Really) Long Run
The Market's Reality Show - A Guide to Earnings Season
Why Investment Strategists Have the Toughest Job on Wall Street
My Desert Island, All-Time, Top Five
Trust Economists, But Verify: Forecasting Fed Moves
Can the Small-Cap Rally Last?
Irrational Exuberance Turns Seven
Corporate Earnings Will Be Up Next Year - Must Stock Prices?
Timing the Market - Proper Revival or Let it Rest In Peace?


The Economy :
Freight Trains and Steep Curves
Why the U.S. financial system has become dangerously dependent on low short-term interest rates and a steep yield curve. How seemingly insignificant factors - such as the value of the Chinese yuan - could derail the U.S. economic expansion.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Why the Federal Reserve is Irrelevant
A Brief Primer on Economics
Historical Data Series and Interesting Links


Financial Markets:
Going for the Gold
Four simple indicators for monitoring the condition of the precious metals markets
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Valuing Foreign Currencies
Estimating the Long-Term Return on Stocks
The Importance of Measuring Returns Peak-to-Peak
Hussman Price/Peak-Earnings Ratio Featured in Barron's Magazine

The Two Essential Elements of Wealth Accumulation
Academic studies have identified the variables that are best at explaining differences in individual wealth. Here's how to make them work for you.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Mutual Fund Brokerage Fees and Trading Costs
The Use (and Abuse) of Short-Term Performance
Bear Market Insights
How and Why Options Should be Expensed from Corporate Earnings
Just for Kids:
Let's Start a Lemonade Stand!
OK, boys and girls. It's been pretty hot out lately. So we're going to start our own lemonade stand!
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Let's Make a Quarter Disappear!

Technical Articles :
Time Variation in Market Efficiency - A Mixture of Distributions Approach (PDF)
Market Efficiency and Inefficiency in Rational Expectations Equilibria (PDF)
A Note on the Interpretation of Cross-Sectional Evidence Against the Beta-Expected Return Relationship


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