Comfort Is Not Your Friend

Comfort is Not Your Friend

  • May 8, 2018

Strong investment opportunities are almost always born out of discomfort. Likewise, market collapses are almost always born out of confidence and euphoria. Markets peak when investors feel confidence about the economy, are impressed by recent market gains, and are comforted by the perception of safety and resilience that follows an extended market advance.

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Risk-Aversion Meets A Hypervalued Market

Risk-Aversion Meets a Hypervalued Market

  • April 6, 2018

Investment is about valuation. Speculation is about psychology. Both factors are unfavorable here. We’re observing the very early effects of risk-aversion in a hypervalued market. Based on the deterioration we’ve observed in our most reliable measures of market internals, investor preferences have subtly shifted toward risk-aversion, which opens up something of a trap-door.

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The Arithmetic Of Risk

The Arithmetic of Risk

  • March 2, 2018

In my view, the idea that higher risk means higher expected return is one of the most dangerous and misunderstood propositions in the financial markets. The reason it’s dangerous is that it ignores the central condition: “provided that one is choosing between portfolios that all maximize expected return per unit of risk.” Presently, the S&P 500 is both a high risk and a low expected return asset.

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Measuring The Bubble

Measuring the Bubble

  • January 28, 2018

I expect the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle. My impression is that future generations will look back on this moment and say "... and this is where they completely lost their minds." As I’ve regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we’re partial to a layer of tail-risk hedges.

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When Speculation Has No Limits

When Speculation Has No Limits

  • January 15, 2018

Here we are, nearly three times the level at which I expect the S&P 500 to complete this cycle. Yet our immediate outlook remains neutral (though tail-risk hedges remain appropriate). It’s essential to distinguish between valuations, which have long-term implications, and market internals, which have implications for shorter segments of the market cycle.

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Survival Tactics For A Hypervalued Market

Survival Tactics for a Hypervalued Market

  • December 31, 2017

The essential survival tactic for a hypervalued market, and its resolution ahead, is to recognize that market valuations can experience breathtaking departures from historical norms for extended segments of the market cycle, so long as shorter-term conditions contribute to speculative psychology rather than risk-averse psychology. Yet those departures matter enormously for long-term returns.

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Navigating The Speculative Id Of Wall Street

Navigating the Speculative Id of Wall Street

  • December 1, 2017

Valuations are understood best not by trying to “justify” or dismiss current extremes, but by recognizing that across history, the speculative inclinations of investors have periodically allowed valuations to depart dramatically from appropriate norms, at least for limited segments of the complete market cycle.

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Brief Observations: Distinctions Matter

Brief Observations: Distinctions Matter

  • November 12, 2017

Last week, the uniformity of market internals shifted to an unfavorable condition. During the advancing half-cycle since 2009, zero interest rates encouraged speculation (and maintained favorable market internals) long after extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions emerged. But distinctions matter. Once the uniformity of market internals - the most reliable measure of speculation itself - is knocked away, those extremes are still likely to matter with a vengeance.

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