The primary drivers of major stock market declines - extended valuations, a sharp rise in interest rates, and growing recession risks - are rarely as elevated, in combination, as they are today. Even a “small r” recession could lead to a deep stock market decline, and the bulk of those losses could occur before the recession is even recognized.
As central banks have shifted to almost purely discretionary monetary policies, investors have lost the anchor of observable economic data. Rising rates of inflation are already more persistent than anyone would have guessed, and the first global monetary tightening cycle in more than five years is likely to begin, amid record market valuations.
Seven considerations for global investors, highlighting specific drivers that will determine the longer-term spread between U.S. and global markets, the current state of those drivers, and what changes in these components of total return may look like over the coming decade.