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Brief Observations: Distinctions Matter

Last week, the uniformity of market internals shifted to an unfavorable condition. During the advancing half-cycle since 2009, zero interest rates encouraged speculation (and maintained favorable market internals) long after extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions emerged. But distinctions matter. Once the uniformity of market internals - the most reliable measure of speculation itself - is knocked away, those extremes are still likely to matter with a vengeance.

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This Time Is Different, But Not How Investors Imagine It Is Different

Encouraged by the novelty of zero-interest rates, not even the most extreme “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions have been enough to derail the speculative inclinations of investors. Yet in every other way, this speculative episode is simply a more extreme variant of others that have come before it.

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Disclosure Notice

Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. More current performance data through the most recent month-end are available at the Fund's website www.hussmanfunds.com or by calling 1-800-487-7626. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Funds carefully before investing. For this and other information, please obtain a Prospectus and read it carefully. The Hussman Funds have the ability to vary their exposure to market fluctuations depending on overall market conditions, and they may not track movements in the overall stock and bond markets, particularly over the short-term. While the intent of this strategy is long-term capital appreciation, total return, and protection of capital, the investment return and principal value of each Fund may fluctuate or deviate from overall market returns to a greater degree than other funds that do not employ these strategies. For example, if a Fund has taken a defensive posture and the market advances, the return to investors will be lower than if the portfolio had not been defensive. Alternatively, if a Fund has taken an aggressive posture, a market decline will magnify the Fund’s investment losses. The Distributor of the Hussman Funds is Ultimus Fund Distributors, LLC., 225 Pictoria Drive, Suite 450, Cincinnati, OH, 45246. The Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund has the ability to hedge market risk by selling short major market indices in an amount up to, but not exceeding, the value of its stock holdings. However, the Fund may experience a loss even when the entire value of its stock portfolio is hedged if the returns of the stocks held by the Fund do not exceed the returns of the securities and financial instruments used to hedge, or if the exercise prices of the Fund's call and put options differ, so that the combined loss on these options during a market advance exceeds the gain on the underlying index. The Fund also has the ability to leverage the amount of stock it controls to as much as 1 1/2 times the value of net assets, by investing a limited percentage of assets in call options. The Hussman Strategic Allocation Fund invests primarily in…

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Reprint Policy

We welcome the sharing of content published on the Hussman Funds site, provided such references include attribution and a direct link to www.hussmanfunds.com, subject to the additional terms below. Intellectual honesty involves attributing ideas to their source, whether the material represents text, graphics, research methods, indicators, or other intellectual effort. Proper attribution is a common courtesy that encourages the free exchange of ideas. With regard to original content, proper attribution is also a legal requirement. All original content is protected by copyright, including illustrations, novel indicators and charts, graphical concepts, descriptions of novel methods, original commentary, and other text and graphics. Whether presented in identical or in materially similar format, this content may be reproduced only with attribution. When reproducing content in non-commercial blog posts available freely to the public, any additional comments or content should be explicitly distinguished from content republished from the Hussman Funds site. Extensive or full reproduction of text or research in paid or for-profit publications must be approved on an individual basis. For both regulatory and copyright reasons, we ask that references to published content be linked to the original article on the Hussman Funds website. Our compliance requirements are that we maintain responsibility for the content we provide to investors, along with all NASD required disclosures and access to a prospectus and regularly updated performance information. We reserve the right to withhold or revoke authorization to reprint, republish or redistribute any content derived from the Hussman Funds website, including third-party content, original data illustrations, graphics, reproduced graphics presenting or updating original indicators or concepts, descriptions of novel methods, and other materials. Approvals for commercial publication of limited content are generally granted upon written request to the shareholder services group at questions@ultimusfundsolutions.com, provided they include proper attribution. Neither the approval to reprint, nor the decision to withhold action against unauthorized use in any specific event, shall constitute a waiver of copyright or control over content derived from the Hussman Funds website. All rights reserved and actively enforced. Unauthorized use of published content or research is a violation of copyright law.

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Why Market Valuations are Not Justified By Low Interest Rates

Current market valuations are consistent with negative expected returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 years, with a likely market loss of more than -60% in the interim. The proposition that “lower interest rates justify higher valuations” has become a rather dangerous slogan, and is an incomplete statement.

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