The word 'equilibrium' is an invitation to recognize that nothing exists by itself, alone. Subject and object are two sides of the same coin – their interaction is a single phenomenon. That perspective can offer a great deal of insight about economics, financial markets, speculative bubbles, passive investing, and nearly everything in existence.
To love a bubble but hate a crash is to misunderstand the market. A bubble is a crash on its way to becoming. A crash is a bull market on its way to becoming. All we can do is to accept, and as difficult as it may be – embrace – whatever form we have in the present moment, so we can do our best with each of them. We don’t need the bubble to be eliminated. We don’t need to grind our teeth until the future arrives to replace the present. There’s nothing we need to discard. Taken together, I expect we have more than we need to benefit – happily – in the event of a never-ending speculative bubble, and that we’ve retained all the proper defense we need to defend against whatever collapse may eventually arrive.
The defining feature of every bubble is the same: a growing inconsistency between the long-term returns that investors expect in their heads - based on extrapolation of the past, and the long-term returns that properly relate prices to likely future cash flows - based on valuations. Every bubble smuggles the same tragic past into the same tragic future by packaging it with new wrinkles that convince investors that this time is different. Ultimately, they still end the same way.
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misaligned expectations for market returns are being realized anyway – via self-fulfilling speculation. From an equilibrium standpoint, record corporate profits and free cash flow, particularly as a share of GDP, are the mirror image of record deficits in the government and household sectors. This isn’t a theory. It’s an accounting identity. Sustaining record corporate surpluses requires sustaining record government and household deficits.
Division by zero is known as a 'singularity.' It’s the point where equations break down, values become 'indeterminate,' things stop working normally, and variables shoot toward infinity and suddenly collapse on the other side. The current speculative bubble was driven by a singularity. Avoiding the crash on the other side relies on the willingness of investors to accept the lowest long-term return prospects in U.S. history, forever. Extremely high prices may seem like a beautiful thing, but they’re a corrupt bargain. Unless you actually sell, the cost of “enjoying” record high valuations is that you are locking-in record low future rates of return.
Bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for future returns lower. In other words, the defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behavior and expected returns based on valuations. The “Bubble Term” measures the gap between the two. Unless the Bubble Term is able to become exponentially larger forever – it shows up as a growing gap between the long-term return that investors expect in their heads, and the long-term return that investors can actually expect based on the future cash flows that will ultimately be delivered into their hands.
With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable 'equity risk premium' gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk. Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.
If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can see the market collapse in it. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can see the bull market in it. Each is a continuation of the other.
At its core, a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that's not priced to tolerate risk. We always become concerned about “trap door” outcomes when rich valuations are joined by deterioration in the uniformity of market internals - which is our most reliable gauge of speculation versus risk-aversion among investors. Our concerns about trap door conditions become even more pointed when investor confidence has been destabilized. We are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. In my view, that process is now complete. The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.